"In the future, operators will have to be better managers if their fleets are to remain profitable. It's the normal evolution of a business that the strong will survive, and they'll do that by being good managers."

In the brave new world envisioned by Timmerman and other equipment manufacturers, power plants will be more fuel efficient and generate fewer air-polluting emissions. Collection vehicles will become more sophisticated, quieter, and equipped with a host of telemetric information systems that will make fleet management easier and waste collection both driver-friendlier and end-user-friendlier. On the disposal side, predictions are that with tighter zoning and land use restrictions more centralized, landfills will be the name of the game, which will mean more-efficient hauling, including long-distance rail, and in the long run perhaps alternate methods of disposal, such as incineration as it is now being used in Europe.

But not everyone believes things will be moving as fast as Timmerman suggests. "You have to get past technology for technology's sake," says Mike Dozier, assistant chief engineer for Peterbilt Motors Co. in Denton, TX. "Applying new technology is good for conceptual design, but to bring it to the real world you have to have to make it pay back for the customer." Melissa Gauger, manager of waste collection at International Truck and Engine Co.'s Severe Service Center in Chicago, IL, sees current trends in the industry as evolutionary rather than revolutionary. And where Timmerman might envision new technology as standard equipment, Gauger thinks in terms of options. "If you offer something as standard and a majority of your customers don't see value in it, you may be starting to price yourself out of the market."

Increased Vehicle Efficiencies

While less than a year ago engine manufacturers were scrambling to come up with the best approach to meet a series of ever-more-stringent emissions reduction standards imposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and while compressed and liquid natural gas vehicles are already on the road, chiefly in California and New York, most manufacturers are now pointing to what they're calling green diesel technology as their emissions-reduction solution for the immediate future.

"Make no mistake about it," says Steve Ginter, Mack Truck's marketing director for vocational products, "diesel will still be the primary source of power in heavy-duty truck engines in 2010. It's the most viable way to generate the kinds of torque and horsepower these vehicles require. The availability and use of ultra-low-sulfur fuel is a prerequisite to meeting emissions standards. So although the technology used to power heavy-duty trucks, including refuse haulers, will evolve, and the levels of NOx and particulate matter they emit will decrease dramatically, diesel will still be at the heart of future power plants. It will be low-sulfur diesel, but diesel nonetheless."

At International, Gauger agrees. "We're looking at radically improving the emissions of diesel engines through a combination of engine refinements and exhaust treatments. Currently with our green diesel technology, we can get lower than any currently available compressed natural gas engine in regard to emissions, and the performance is better because of the energy level of the fuel." Other arguments that suggest MSW managers will still be specifying diesel engines six years from now include the fact that the infrastructure is in place and that low-sulfur diesel fuels have had a history of performing well in Europe.

Dan Rosen, Heil Environmental's director of product management, thinks one fallout from the move toward lower emissions will be an increase in the demand for larger engines, particularly for automated collection. "I'm speaking specifically of operated idle," says Rosen, "which has migrated across most of Heil's product lines. To operate at idle requires high-flow pumps. To function this way, you've got to get that same flow with lower rpms, so you're going to have to have high horsepower. There are big productivity gains for operators that use operated idle. But to have chasses and transmissions and engines that accommodate that, you may have to step up in engine size in the future if you're going to roll it into your fleet."

Christian Lapointe, vice president of sales and marketing for Canada-based Labrie Equipment Ltd., thinks the issue of power plants hasn't been resolved yet and is not rushing to build any new bodies to accommodate what's being considered, including much-discussed hybrid technology. "The key factor," says Lapointe, "is how these new components will be managed at the chassis OEM level."

At Mack, Ginter sees hybrids as particularly adaptable to the refuse industry, an innovation smart managers will avail themselves of. "Collection vehicles are sometimes empty, sometimes full, and most of the time partially loaded. Diesel hybrid electric power plants would provide the capability to use electric power when the hauler has little or no load, and then diesel or methane when the load increases and more power is required. These vehicles also operate in a stop-and-go mode, which is well suited to a hybrid system that captures the heat generated by braking as the source of the power for an electric motor."

Don Verhoff, executive vice president of corporate engineering and technology for Oshkosh Truck Corp. in Oshkosh, WI, agrees. "Chasses are going to change to where they have onboard energy absorption systems, either hydraulic or electric, and the total energy of the vehicle can be much better used during the refuse collection cycle. This will result in improved fuel efficiencies. There are systems in development today that can capture large portions of that energy, and this is going to be quite effective in the refuse industry.

"We have a military program going on right now where we've been asked to reduce the weight of a cargo vehicle by approximately 2 tons. We did it with a hybrid configuration, which is unusual because usually the weight goes up with a hybrid. In this application, however, we are using capacitors instead of batteries. This is a series system, AT-AC variable-speed-drive power. And since we're driving a series system, we don't need those very large engines with high torques to generate heavy pulling - we can do it with electric motors. This means we're going to be able to drop down the 12- to 14-liter engine we're currently running in many refuse trucks to a 7- to 8-liter engine and still run the same horsepower levels and have equivalent performance."

"One of things we envision with the electric version hybrids," says Timmerman," is freeing the driver from any significant amount of activity with regard to acceleration and deceleration. If he's doing pickup with a rearloader, he can push a button and the vehicle will accelerate up to speed; then he pushes the same button and the truck comes to a stop and holds itself. Additionally, the displays on the dash will switch back and forth from the backup camera to the side or top camera to display what the driver needs when he needs it."

Collection vehicle operators in fact are likely to get more comfortable in the foreseeable future when driver efficiency and safety as well as accountability will be more of an issue. At Heil, Rosen sees this as, in part, the fallout of increased automated collection. "As benefit costs for employees increase and the demand to be more productive increases and the demand from consumers to reduce cost increases, you're going to have to automate. We've seen a steady increase over the last few years in the amount of people converting residential rearloaders to automated one-man vehicles." At Labrie, Lapointe thinks successful manufacturers will be those who adapt their equipment to changes in workers' compensation programs and tightening Occupational Safety and Health Administration standards. "We believe the equipment needs to service the operator and not the other way around. You can no longer design equipment that will require highly demanding tasks of operators. The key criterion in product development is going to be ease of operation, especially given that we're seeing an increase in women operators."

Other Pluses of Hybrids

Timmerman points out that noise from this new era of smart trucks will be reduced because, "as we get closer to using the energy we actually need and not wasting it, the demands for energy on this vehicle will go down, and your noise from combustion will also go down."

Verhoff says in Holland McNeilus is working with vehicles in the low 70 dB range, which make it possible to look at pickup in the evenings and the mornings. The Dutch group is working with an electric-powered body, which doesn't rely on the engine for packing. But at Heil, Rosen points out that so far manufacturers haven't done much to make collection containers any quieter to use. Installing plastic sleeves into the pockets of containers appears to be one way to go, says Rosen, an approach he says is being taken by at least one cart manufacturer.

At International, Gauger wonders whether electrical hybrids are going to prove robust enough for the waste industry as a sole power source, and at Peterbilt, Dozier agrees with Timmerman that between now and 2010, the viability and value of hybrids will be to improve the efficiency of overall vehicle systems. "I think it's somewhat unrealistic to think there will be truly a hybrid system where the secondary system, whether it's electric or hydraulic, will run on its own," says Dozier. "This will not be switch-on, switch-off, but will use the electric power to help with startup. The same thing will apply with a diesel hydraulic system."

Although cost of fuel is a primary industry concern, neither Timmerman nor his colleague Verhoff sees alternatives such as fuel cells or hydrogen in the offing by 2010. Instead, to save fuel, Timmerman thinks the industry will see on-demand pumps for compacting and body mechanisms. "Probably the frontrunner at least for the foreseeable future is going to be some form of piston pump so these hydraulic systems will only use energy when they need to do work. Right now, traditional gear pump systems are eating energy and producing nothing but heat, which is negative.

"The one thing Don and I talk about a lot in our engineering groups is that the best design is still the simplest design. Something that requires a tremendous amount of maintenance is not the right design—that it's not there yet. Less maintenance in the form of simpler designs means greaseless pivot points and better cylinders with built-in position sensing. You're going to see more solid-state electronics. Rather than seeing 100, 120 wires going from the back to the front of these bodies, in the CAN bus system you're going to see a series of four wires with pickup points at your switch modules. A lot of these things we're looking forward to exist today and they're becoming commercially available and not prohibitively expensive to use." Other innovations likely to hit the refuse market in the not-so-distant future include a new engine filter that allows annual oil changes and biodegradable hydraulic fluid. "We're using a lot of biodegradable oils in Europe," says Timmerman. "These types of alternatives are not prohibitive anymore, and there are lots of issues, such as environmental liability, that are going to push us toward these kinds of things.

"We're going to see bodies that aren't 100% steel. We're looking for less weight in the vehicle so it can carry more payload. We're looking at corrosion resistance and better coatings. Rather than making steel thicker for wear, we're doing more things with hybrid materials and cladding different kinds of materials."

"Tough, light, and durable is what Mack Trucks is after," says Ginter. "We're already using ductile cast iron, which is very strong yet lightweight, in some of our axles. We are using composites in the interiors of our cabs. But cost is always a consideration. We might be able to build an entire vehicle out of titanium, but it would be so expensive no one would buy it."

Forget titanium, says Chuck Henry, who's heading trailer marketing at Martin Marietta Composites in Jacksonville, FL. Think composites. The company has licensed a European design and is proceeding full-speed-ahead not only with transfer trailers (already out), but also with flatbeds (expected to be out at the end of 2004) and eventually (yes, maybe) collection vehicles. The company has been building composite bridge decks for more than six years and projects bridges made from its material will not need maintenance for up to 75 years after installation.

"A composite is nothing more than two or more materials combined so the result is greater than either one of them individually," says Henry. "The composite material Martin Marietta is using in transfer trailers is produced by drawing fabric that has been folded and formed to the desired structural shape through liquid polymer resins, and then through a heated die under heat and pressure.

"The advantage of composites," says Henry, "is that unlike metals, they have no memory. All metals have a fatigue factor, and every time a metal is deflected or bent, it builds up stresses or fatigue until it snaps. You deflect a composite and it returns to its original shape."

Henry claims Martin Marietta's composite transfer trailers are 20%–25% lighter than aluminum trailers, and although the initial price tag is higher, the return on investment is an impressive 14–18 months. "This kind of vehicle can leave a transfer station with two extra tons on board," says Henry. "If you're hauling 15 to 16 tons, that means about every eight loads, you get one free."

At Labrie, Lapointe reports that the company has investigated composites and likes the idea. "We're already using composites and recycled polyethylene plastic components with our body fabrications. We also have used some recycled plastic and low-polyethylene-density plastics inside the body with very good success. In 1999 when we introduced a composite canopy on our commercial frontloaders, we ran crash tests. The material passed all the tests over and above the common steel components we use. The perception will probably be the biggest objection to overcome—the question of whether a vehicle made from this kind of material is going to last."

Keeping Track of Assets

So while it appears we can look forward to collection vehicles that are less polluting, quieter, and more fuel efficient, for smart managers, getting clean-running, quiet vehicles on the road is just the beginning of improved efficiency and cost effectiveness. According to Don Weigel, director of municipal markets for  Trimble's Mobile Solutions Division, early adopters have already caught onto mobile resource management. "What we're going to see by 2010," says Weigel, "is that a lot of the information technologies that are now in the early adopter stage will be standard on refuse vehicles."

The foundation for this brave new world of information management is a combination of global positioning systems (GPS) and wireless technology, which make it possible to determine real-time vehicle location and operational status. Adding onboard scales to a vehicle equipped with GPS will allow savvy managers to record the weight of each container serviced, data which scale manufacturers insist will eventually be combined with back-office billing systems to make it possible to bill by weight. Onboard cameras will be standard for increased efficiency and operator accountability, as will be text messaging from dispatch to driver, mated with engine and chassis CAN bus technologies that will allow monitoring of such critical operating perimeters as engine rpms, oil pressure, and all-important tire pressure—all in real time, making onboard diagnostics and prognostics a real and effective fleet management tool. "The body system is going to be much smarter in the future," says Timmerman. "It will bring up conditions that are getting into a caution zone before they fail. What this amounts to is very much proactive maintenance."

Instrumental to these smart collection vehicles will be technology such as International's Diamond Logic, a multiplexed electrical system that connects engine, transmission, cab, and body. And not to be left behind by the capabilities of GPS-wireless technology, International has recently signaled its view of the future with its announcement of TransStar Telematics, making it the first original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to offer what it calls "a complete telematics solution" on its own vehicles and available for other manufacturers'.

"What we've seen in the ready-mix concrete business," says Weigel, making a comparison with another commodity-based industry, "is that managers who have adopted this technology and combined it with other back-office technologies, such as dispatch, and what the concrete industry calls 'batching technologies,' are getting an extra load of concrete a day. The parallel in the refuse industry is interfacing route planning, for example, with dispatch tools and with billing and customer service systems."

Full Speed Ahead

At Peterbilt, Environmental Sales Manager Bob Wood cautions that it might take longer than expected to develop scales coupled with GPS that will hold up in the MSW environment, but scale manufacturers are optimistic.

"Weight is an integral component of driver productivity, equipment utilization, and company profitability in both collection and transfer operations," says Martin Ambrose, chief executive officer of Air-Weigh Scales in Eugene, OR, who dismisses concerns about weight certification and the challenges of the refuse environment. "By 2010, integrated onboard weighing will be standard on all collection and transfer vehicles. It will be an integrated scale system, complete from the chassis OEM, and the basic axle weighing system will not require anything mounted after chassis delivery. Display of weights will be via the vehicle's information display center.

"At a minimum, each vehicle will be able to provide the driver with on-the-ground axle weights, gross vehicle weight, and net payload weight. Container collection vehicles may have additional, more-sophisticated weighing devices in order to provide certified container weights. As a result of real-time weight management, collection bodies will undergo even more weight-reduction engineering to maximize payload. It will no longer be just the heavy Mondays that see vehicles loading to the maximum weight limits because every vehicle with capacity available at the end of a route can be dispatched to help out on other routes before heading for the landfill or transfer station."

Keith Reichow, president of Vulcan On-Board Scales in Kent, WA, is likewise in agreement with the idea that scales will be part of integrated telematics. "Being overweight means fines; coming in underweight, you're leaving money behind. With scales like ours, you can get within 1% of maximum legal every time." Vulcan manufactures fork-mounted sensors for front-end loaders, the idea being to equalize the equation whereby haulers typically bill by volume but pay by weight when they dump what they collect. "Without scales," says Reichow, "everybody guesses. Then some guy gets the bright idea of putting on scales. Now he can see what he's picking up from each account and how much money he's actually making. Payback is typically under a year. But to make it work, onboard weighing has to be integrated into your accounting system."

On the other hand, @Road, a mobile resource management firm in Fremont, CA, is betting that savvy, forward-thinking refuse managers are going to adopt consumer-friendly information technology capability currently in use in other service-based industries.

"Ours is a subscription-based model," says @Road Corporate Affairs Vice President J.D. Fay. "The three technologies of wireless communications, the Internet, and GPS are now stable and available for businesses to use to enhance their operations. "We combine these three with software that allows management to view what's going on with their workers in the field every day. A future-oriented manager will want to know how to react on a moment's notice to the changing field environment. They already do it with inventory adjustment and management, but they don't on the other end where they're delivering service to the customer. A company like Verizon has up to 30,000 people in the field every day; Waste Management has the same thing."

The @Road firm and other subscription-based companies archive the data their systems collect and then serve it up to their customers via the Internet, making this kind of monitoring available to smaller operations that aren't interested in or equipped to manage this kind of data. In the @Road system, communication with infield employees is either via cell phone or a PDA installed in the cab. Archiving messages allows managers to verify that service was completed—how many bins loaded, what types of materials, etc. "In a customer service business, it helps to be able to know the location of each person in the field at any given time," says Fay. "You know what your skill sets are, what kind of equipment each person has, and now you can match jobs to people. Down the road you're going to find dynamic dispatching, where a driver may not have his entire route assigned in the morning. You might start off with a few jobs and then at midday download what's next."

"Mining" or "harvesting" the new types of data, as the experts put it, can tell a savvy manager when drivers are speeding as well as which containers were serviced, but such information also provides documentation in disputes and proof positive that the operator's contract responsibilities have been discharged. "I've been in a waste hauler's office when customers called in complaining the hauler hadn't picked up their containers that day," says Weigel. "With telematics, he could verify that the bin had been serviced."

Smart managers will also be using GPS to check on all-important driver productivity: Is the driver where he's supposed to be? Is he driving safely? Trimble has recently rolled out a driving-safety program that's already in the concrete industry. DriveSafe uses GPS to measure G forces on vehicles, which allows office personnel to measure whether a driver is stopping or taking corners too fast. The program takes measurements and creates an index for each driver, so a company can compare drivers against its internal fleet as well as industry indices to see who's driving safely and who's not and then use the information as the basis for a driver safety training program.

Tannerman thinks GPS is "just the tip of the iceberg" and is looking forward to radio frequency identification (RFID) systems, which he thinks smart managers will take advantage of to further streamline customer service and eliminate errors. A small, radio-frequency identifier that consists of a brick of about 2.5 in. in diameter and 0.5 in. thick is embedded with an ID number and attached to the customer's container. When the reader on the collection vehicle comes in proximity, it requests the ID from the tag, and the result is a time and date stamp of when the container was serviced. "You can imagine an alley with 10 containers," says Weigel, "each one belonging to a different customer and each on a different pickup schedule. RFID would make sure the driver got it right."

At Mack, Ginter also sees additional potential for vehicle tracking systems, which is to enhance landfill and transfer station operational efficiencies. "If the folks at the landfill know that 50 trucks are on the way, they can ready equipment and make any other necessary arrangements to prepare for that influx."

Getting It There Can Be Half the Expense

Given increased traffic in urban and suburban areas and the likelihood that hauls to landfills will get longer, coordinating collection and disposal will likely become a more complex challenge in the future. In anticipation of these problems, Heil has been offering the Starr System since the mid-1990s, using what Rosen calls trailerization to help solve issues of collection-disposal scheduling. The basis of the system is a tractor-trailer combination with a lifting mechanism mounted to the trailer. "One of the benefits is incredible maneuverability as opposed to straight frame truck," says Rosen. "And you can pull these to the landfill in doubles. You're basically taking your collection vehicle to the landfill without ever having to transfer what you collect to another vehicle." The Heil Starr System vehicles have a 1,600-pound lift capacity, an eight-second cycle time, an 8-foot reach, with capacities of 33 and 37 cubic yards, and are equipped with Heil's operated idle.

For mangers using traditional collection-transfer systems, the entry of Martin Marietta's composite trailer is bound to shake up the transfer vehicle market, which is currently aimed at balancing payload versus durability. "Given that haulers are having to move the waste farther and farther," says Jerry Whitehead, president of Western Trailer Co. in Boise, ID, "the direction we're headed in is lightweight trailers capable of handling a maximum payload. We look at different shapes and different extrusions to add strength without weight. We're starting to see more possum-bellied tipper trailers, which allow operators to haul a bigger payload without compaction."

"The fine line in trailer manufacturing is meeting the weight issue without crossing the line of structural integrity," says Philip Bortz, vice president of sales and marketing at MAC Trailer Manufacturing in Alliance, OH. Bortz also reports that the majority of MAC's current construction is hollow-core, aluminum extruded panel trailers rather than traditional, fully welded sheet and post. "The smooth-sided panel is nothing new to the industry. It's the way the majority of the trailers have been constructed in Europe since the '80s, and it's been infiltrating our shores over the past two to four years."

Bortz further notes a trend toward tipper trailers, and Jeff Van Raden, director of marketing for Columbia Corp. in Hillsboro, OR, agrees. "Take the money you'd put out to buy 20 [live] floor trailers and buy one tipper. You get away from the weight and the expensive maintenance and you begin supporting more tons per trip, which brings down your cost per mile. Even if you're only moving 2,000 extra pounds every trailer load every day, those dollars keep screaming at you—and the efficiencies can be higher than that." Whitehead has also noted the trend toward tippers. Western Trailer is now selling more tipper trailers in an average year than moving or live floor trailers. "We see operators using the tipper trailers on the long hauls. On shorter hauls, there's not enough volume."

Whitehead also agrees there's a trend toward scales on board transfer vehicles—in part because he predicts increased enforcement of highway weight regulations. "Most of the trailers we build have Air Ride, which automatically gives you an onboard scale—you read the pressure and equate it back to pounds. I can't think of any trailer that we've built in the last two or three years that wasn't Air Ride or didn't have an onboard scale."

Everyone agrees that on some markets rail haul is probably inevitable. "With more landfills closing, we're going to see more larger, centralized operations," says Van Raden. "And with that, we're going to continue to see more projects going by rail. Seattle's garbage is leaving the area by train now and going to regional landfills where they're using tippers. It it's a trend that can be bucked, but temporarily."

But Bob Wallace, director of transportation and logistics for Waste Management's western group, says it's not quite that simple. Both the length of haul and the amount of waste to be transported are crucial for managers interested in shipping waste by rail. "An average rule of thumb is that rail really doesn't come in as an effective way of transportation unless you're over 250 miles one way from origin to landfill." Add to that the amount of waste generated by, say, a city the size of Los Angeles or Seattle, and you might have a likely scenario for rail haul. Traffic congestion and tight emissions regulations add to equation—or perhaps your trash is being hauled through a scenic area, Oregon's Columbia River Gorge, for example. Perhaps the local landfill is closing and there are no other nearby dumpsites. For smaller communities stuck in the latter bind but where volume is not enough to warrant rail transfer, there are options. Smaller municipalities north of Seattle, for example, which has had a waste-by-rail program in place since 1991, are piggy-backing on the city's operation. "They put one of our intermodal containers onto one of their chasses," says Wallace, "and bring it to the railroad yard loaded where they exchange it for an empty container to haul home." And although individually these cities may not contribute much, collectively they've helped boost Seattle's trash train from running twice a week to a unit train of 50 cars that runs six days during most seven-day periods.

Polishing his crystal ball, Wallace doesn't figure the trend will be toward siting new landfills exclusively to serve rail. The infrastructure costs are just too expensive. "You have to build tracks up to the landfill; then you have to build top-picks for picking containers off. You have to stockpile an inventory of intermodal containers. And you have to do this at both ends." Wallace thinks it's more likely that existing landfills will be equipped for direct rail service with tracks built directly to them, which eliminates the need to move containers back and forth between railcars and truck chasses. He also predicts waste by rail will be used more extensively in the western US, in part because existing rail infrastructure in the East isn't set up to handle this kind of traffic; existing trestles, for example, can't accommodate double stacking.

"The City of Seattle train is the best kind of rail haul," says Wallace. "You've got day-in, day-out work and continual volume into your landfill. This produces the kind of regular income that allows you to make critical decisions, such as buying equipment."

At Waste Management, colleague Alex Popov, director of fleet services and logistics, offers an information technology view of the future, which he says he has glimpsed and it works. Faced with what he refers to as "opportunity for inefficiencies" because of Waste Management's consolidation, Popov is using GPS to decrease route duplication and to monitor real-time vehicle location. He's also working with @Road to create Fay's dynamic dispatch tool for rolloffs, whereby drivers get a percentage of their tickets the night before and are dispatched for the rest as their routes proceed.

"We're looking at this from a service perspective as well as tracing drivers, and to overlay the route we designed for them versus the route they're running," says Popov, who agrees the challenge, especially at this juncture, is how to effectively use the data telematics allows his organization to collect. "My intuition," says Popov—who came to Waste Management with a background at UPS—"tells me we're going to use the data we collect for safety reasons, for productivity metrics, for engine metrics." But although he isn't complaining, one of the biggest challenges in the brave new world that lies ahead might well be presenting what he uncovers to management that has typically not shown itself to be overly technologically inclined.