By Richard J. Mauck

Twenty years ago if I had predicted some of the technology that would be in use today, my article would have been described as science fiction. One thing I have learned is that if it can be envisioned and doesn't violate the laws of physics, it will most likely become a reality some day. Whether it will become common practice depends upon economics and politics.

What was envisioned 20 years ago as wishful thinking and has now become a proven technology? One good example is automated residential collection technology. Even though commercial frontloading collection vehicles had been collecting garbage bins for decades, how could anyone envision residents giving up their beloved garbage cans for something new? Rising labor and workers' compensation costs fueled the search for a better way. Improved technology paved the way for ensuring economic success. To see automated residential collection now makes one wonder, Why did we ever think it was an impossible dream?

Twenty years ago it seemed that a waste-diversion goal of 50% was an economic and political impossibility. What a difference the right kind of planned or unplanned public relations event can make! One barge full of garbage floating off the coast of the United States sent fears of being buried in garbage to everyone who watched television or read a newspaper. A manufactured crisis created the political will to set a goal and find solutions.

Professionals who challenged the practice of sanitary "dry tomb" landfills with the concept of bioreactor landfills were labeled as quacks and far-out fringe elements. Today the bioreactor landfill concept is approaching an acceptable alternative status.

Two decades ago the goal of replacing significant amounts of virgin materials in products with recycled product materials seemed economically unlikely until the virgin materials became scarce. Critics would have scoffed at the prediction that newspapers would consist of 100% recycled content paper, and would still be white with non-smearing environmentally biodegradable ink.

So what of the future? What will become of the technology and practice of the future? It depends on the "when" in the future. Sometime in the distant future virgin materials will become scarce, zero or near-zero solid-waste goals will be realized, and then landfills will become obsolete. A more short-term vision of 20 years hence will make it easier for you to remember my visions and laugh, or be amazed at my Nostradamus-like abilities. Twenty years from now, I envision that all residential and commercial collection programs will be set up with garbage, single-stream recycling, and greenwaste/foodwaste collection containers. Ample storage space and signage will be provided for these containers, with good education programs and instructions.

Solid-waste collection systems of the future, whether commercial or residential, will be fully automated. The driver will just drive up to the containers, frontloader bins, or carts; push a button; and the automated collection arm will identify, lift, weigh, and empty each container. Customer billings based on container size and weight will be automatically computed from the information collected. Collection vehicles also will be equipped with global positioning systems (GPS), uplinked cameras, and sophisticated communication systems. Camera information with customer ID and GPS information will be used to resolve overloading and missed collection complaints. Onboard collection weight data will be shared with a reader at the processing/disposal site, and used to crosscheck scale weights and do analysis. Customer participation rates and violations will be identified, and program system reports will be generated automatically.

Future materials recovery facilities will be fully automated with only a few employees still active on the sorting and baling room floors. Optical and remote-controlled robots will break bags and remove oversize materials. After splitting of the recyclable streams, optical scanners will sort all the types of containers and paper products into multiple categories. Conveyor belts and remote-controlled claws and forklifts will load and unload materials and bales.

All construction and demolition materials in the future will be reused or recycled. Any required future landfills will be triple-lined and megasized, located in more remote areas of the country. Some landfills will be bioreactors, but most will ban organics and have gone to mixed-waste composting with the screenings being landfilled. Landfill gas collection and control will be mandatory. Any landfill gas–conversion systems will receive various tax incentives and renewable energy credits. To recover valuable property, several old landfills each year will be reopened, mined for materials, and remaining waste will be hauled to megafills.

Product stewardship will be ever-present in the future. Other manufacturers will take the lead from the electronics industry and white-goods manufacturers, and will use product stewardship as part of their education and marketing campaigns. Recycling their old products will tie in with rebates on their new product replacement, and discounts on their accessory products. Even the plastics industry will feel the political and environmental pressure to produce maximum-extent, practical recyclable content material, or else assume full product stewardship.

Manufacturers of previously identifiable household hazardous waste materials (HHW) will subsidize all remaining HHW programs and assume all disposal facility liabilities for their waste. Because of future landmark liability rulings by the Supreme Court, the products being manufactured will have become much more environmentally friendly.

The solid-waste profession of the future will grow in size and complexity. The profession will overlap into green business and construction, manufacturing, product-stewardship programs, and robotic and remote-control technology fields. Solid-waste prevention and management will become a primary planning component and will have significant consideration in all project development and business operations. The solid-waste profession will finally be acknowledged as a blue-chip player in the development of the future.

Many, if not all, of these ideas have already been discussed. My real prediction is that we will see them implemented sooner rather than later.

Richard J. Mauck, director of Streets & Automotive Services for the City of Santa Clara, CA, is the newly elected president of SWANA, and a member of MSW Management's Editorial Advisory Board.

MSW - November/December 2004